Mapping out GIS-based Community Risk Assessment with the Scottish Fire & Rescue Service

In March 2023, Sweco was commissioned by the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) to provide GIS consultancy services to enhance its baseline Community Risk Index Model (CRIM^©) which was developed in collaboration with the Universities of Edinburgh and Nottingham.

Baseline CRIM^© combines incident data with geodemographics to assess community exposure to risk at data zone level. It deploys Machine Learning techniques to generate a risk metric for all 6,976 data zones across the Scottish mainland and islands (Census 2011). Data zones are the key geography for the dissemination of small area statistics in Scotland. They are designed to have roughly standard populations of 500 to 1,000 household residents, have compact shapes that respect physical boundaries where possible, and contain households with similar social characteristics.

The principal aim of the project was to integrate environment data into the baseline CRIM^© and re-balance the model by introducing key measures of Scotland’s human and physical geography, including the built environment and risk from flooding events.

The updated CRIM^© provides insights on medium and longer-term risk from the natural and built environment at small area geographies across Scotland’s communities. Data from the project will support a range of intelligence needs in associated projects at SFRS, including Station and Appliance Review, Retained and Volunteer Duty System, and Demand-based Watch Duty System.

The challenges

SFRS wanted to develop a methodology for measuring and comparing risk levels from the natural and built environment at small area geographies across Scotland and use that to enhance its understanding and decision-making on how to allocate its resources effectively.

At the same time, SFRS wanted to maximise the use of:

• Data products from Ordnance Survey (OS), Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and other data providers
• Spatial analysis and geoprocessing models
• Automation of GIS workflows
• Interactive visualisations for decision making.

Our solution

Sweco developed a comprehensive, GIS-based solution for SFRS to enhance its baseline CRIM^© and generate suitable environmental risk metrics for integration into the R source code of the baseline model.

Using ArcGIS Pro, Sweco’s solution was to collate and analyse national datasets of location and business data across Scotland from multiple sources, including:

• Scottish Government Data Zones
• SEPA Flood Extent Maps and Land Use Vulnerability classification
• OS Open Built Up Areas and Open Roads products
• OS AddressBase Plus and MasterMap Topography Layer products
• SFRS Audit Risk Groups classifications for property types based on risk to life of the occupants.

Then, using spatial analysis and geoprocessing tasks, as well as an analytic hierarchy process for quantifying the weights of decision criteria, Sweco developed three multi-criteria analysis models:

• Flood Risk Assessment model at data zone level for usage in CRIM^©
• Built Environment Risk Assessment model at data zone level for usage in CRIM^©
• Continuous Buildings Classification Risk Assessment model at building level for usage outside CRIM^©, as a digital twin.

Key metrics were calculated from each risk assessment, including:

• flood risk per data zone (as the summation of the calculated risk from flooding for the built-up areas, road network and properties)
• number of vulnerable properties within areas flooded from river, coastal water and surface water per data zone
• built environment risk per data zone (as the summation of the calculated risk from the concentration of tall buildings (over 18m) and the distribution of premises occupancy types)
• number of tall buildings (over 18m in height) per data zone
• percentage of vulnerable properties (in terms of occupancy types) per data zone
• risk from the distribution of premises occupancy types per building
• the highest fire and rescue risk per building
• buildings below and equal or over 18m in height.

These provide SFRS with unexplored analytical insights, strengthening the baseline risk model. They transform complex datasets into manageable information by visualising data in 2D at data zone level through interactive ArcGIS Dashboards, and in unified 2D/3D digital cities at building level through a compelling ArcGIS Experience Builder Web App.

Damien Griffith, Community Risk Manager, Scottish Fire and Rescue Service says:

“After testing the navigation, display options, tools and rendering on the 3D ArcGIS Experience Builder Web App, I just have to say ‘Wow’! There are many aspects and tools that most will be impressed by, not least in its 3D rendering and massing detail from any perspective or angle.”

Outcome & benefits

The Sweco ArcGIS solution unlocked previously unexplored insights for SFRS, including medium and longer-term risk from the natural (flood) and built environment at small area geographies across Scotland’s communities.  Also, a portfolio of automated GIS workflows was developed for re-running the risk assessment models and updating the online spatial content.

Sweco provided an innovative, ArcGIS-based solution which:

• Integrates location and business data into a central Geodatabase
• Runs three bespoke, multi-criteria analysis models, in the form of custom model and script tools developed with ModelBuilder and Python/ArcPy for ArcGIS Pro
• Calculates the required risk variables and KPIs while unlocking new insights
• Maps and visualises location-based analytics through dynamic ArcGIS Dashboards and an immersive ArcGIS Experience Builder Web App on ArcGIS Online.

The ArcGIS Experience Builder Web App is an indispensable urban planning and risk management tool – bringing in and using high quality OS MasterMap Topography Layer data just makes it hugely relevant to SFRS work areas. Looking forward to using this in so many ways, as I’m sure key officers in SFRS will be too.

Damien Griffith Community Risk Manager, Scottish Fire and Rescue Service

With the developed solution, SFRS can now identify and compare the level of risk from the flood and built environment within nearly 7,000 data zones and 3.8 million buildings across Scotland.  This will be used to make informed decisions regarding the SFRS operating environment.  Analysts and officers at the SFRS can now access interactive ArcGIS Dashboards offering comprehensive views of the data, while providing key insights for operational resource planning.

A compelling ArcGIS Experience Builder Web App empowers SFRS to understand large and complex data and its spatial relationships by representing it simultaneously as linked 2D and 3D buildings in the form of digital cities.  Metrics calculated from this project will support a range of intelligence needs to assist strategic planning.

Finally, the SFRS now benefits from a Common Data Environment, provided by the central Geodatabase that supports the solution’s desktop and web GIS components.  The SFRS also gains from the custom tools developed for ArcGIS Pro that ensure accuracy in spatial analysis and geoprocessing tasks, while creating efficiencies by minimising the time required to run the processes.

Scottish Fire & Rescue Service and Sweco have successfully enhanced the Community Risk Index Model by introducing key measures of Scotland’s human and physical geography, unlocking previously unexplored insights that are used to make informed decisions regarding the SFRS operating environment.

Panos Chiotis Principal GIS Consultant, Sweco