Going beyond the BCR in Bradford

Indicative BCR and Switching Values

Perhaps the biggest change in the November 2024 update to the VfM framework is the introduction of an indicative BCR in addition to the initial and adjusted BCR metrics. This allows ‘level 3’ monetised benefits such as wider economic impacts and landscape to be included a BCR ‘where a strong justification for their robustness and relevance can be demonstrated in the economic dimension’. The indicative BCR was not available when the business case was submitted for Bradford City Centre, although some indicative monetised benefits for things like improved walking journey times in the city centre and urban realm were presented in the Economic Dimension, as well as a land and property economics benefit assessment.

The ‘switching values’ method as set out in the Supplementary Guidance on Categories was used in the Bradford City Centre business case. The scheme had an initial BCR of 2.27 that fell into the lower end of the ‘high’ value for money category.

To capture benefits that cannot be monetised and provide more confidence in the VfM category, extensive use of non-monetised benefits was employed including:

• Regeneration including objectives linked to Bradford City of Culture 2025
• Public health and Healthy Streets
• City centre green space
• Health
• Severance
• Equality
• Sustainable development; and
• Crime prevention

A range of BCRs

I’ve previously talked about the ‘false certainty’ of a single BCR based on a core scenario and to gain a better understanding of the real value for money we need to get comfortable with presenting a range of possible outcomes and values. The VfM framework expands on this, setting out how sensitivity analysis should be used in the VfM assessment. This includes how different scenarios and uncertainties can alter the VfM category and sensitivity analysis should give greater confidence in the final assessment. On Bradford City Centre this involved using the DfT’s Uncertainty Toolkit to shape and record uncertainties including different appraisal periods and differing growth and patronage forecasts. Several alternative scenarios were modelled including those from the Common Analytical Scenarios, which I’ve previously talked about in another article including how it can be used in conjunction with other tools mentioned here to boost the case for investment.

Bringing together the Strategic and Economic Dimensions

The 2020 Green Book review found a “common failure of those writing appraisals to engage properly with the strategic context”. On Bradford City Centre, we used well developed techniques such as Logic Mapping to develop measures that provide suitable solutions to the local issues and opportunities. Links could also clearly be drawn between the expected outcomes and impacts that were appraised using the techniques described above. A summary commentary was provided within the economic dimension on how the appraisal aligned with strategic scheme objectives as well as wider policy and goals such as the City Centre’s role in City of Culture 2025.

Since the Bradford City Centre business case submission, new guidance that ‘helps business case authors to systematically connect the economic and strategic dimensions of the business case’ has been released in the form of Spending Objective analysis. I wrote a blog last year where I noted it as a ‘simple way to present information including both quantified and qualitative analysis’. I would certainly look to include a Spending Objective Analysis Statement in future business case submissions.

Spatial analysis and the importance of place

Updates to the Green Book in the 2020 and 2022 covering place-based analysis have filtered  through to DfT tools and guidance. Guidance on this was particularly useful when developing a business case in Bradford, a city that is the youngest in the UK, stands to benefit from City of Culture 2025 and its legacy, but also has high levels of deprivation and is consistently identified as the worst connected major city in the UK. Place based analysis encourages the promotor and appraiser to analyse the local impacts of a proposal, supplementing the whole country economic effects traditionally considered in a transport business case.

TAG Unit 4-3: Placed based analysis provides a set of guidance on “the process of spatially disaggregating the scheme’s likely outcomes in terms of social welfare impacts and distributional impacts in the economic dimension of the business case.” A form of placed based analysis is employed in the Levelling up toolkit. It will be interesting to see if this toolkit is discontinued (or more likely rebranded) following recent government announcements, however for the time being it still provides a useful structure to show “how a transport proposal contributes towards delivering the DfT strategic priority to Grow and Level Up the Economy” in the Strategic Dimension.

In fact as I was pulling together this blog, a further review of the Green Book ‘to drive regional growth’ was announced which will report back by 11 June 2025 as part of the Spending Review. At the same time, announcements were made to form ‘strategic partnerships’ between several of the regions and the National Wealth Fund to “provide enhanced, hands-on support with tailored commercial and financial advice to help regions develop and secure long-term investment opportunities”.

It will be interesting to see how this update differs from the ‘levelling-up’ agenda of the previous government and whether we see a continuation of developments to the tools and guidance above   or something more radical. Another interesting aspect will be in the implementation and approach to assurance, particularly as combined authorities increasingly undertake this function at a regional level. Seeing how Combined Authorities incorporate changes into their own business case and appraisal guidance is something that will continue to develop over the coming years.